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Author Topic: BREXIT or NOT?  (Read 856 times)

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coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #15 on: November 25, 2017, 13:42 »


Donald Tusk gives UK ‘absolute deadline’ to make Brexit offer

The EU needs to see progress in 10 days, the European Council president said.

From; https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-tusk-brexit-sufficient-progress-huge-challenge/



I deliberately avoid Brexit issues as I see it as a slow train wreck on both sides of the channel.  However while everybody is talking of progress in the talks I sense an undercurrent of dissent within the UK.

Having just had a UK budget speech that underlines fiscal austerity and reports from UK military sources warning of systemic meltdown in the Navy and army I detect a feeling in the country that giving £40-50 billion to "our friends over the channel" as a bribe to trade with their best customer is distasteful.

Given the governments weak position I expect to see May`s position challenged soon in which case a more robust PM could face the EU.

I am going out on a limb here but I see the danger in the EU`s hard faced position as a UK crash out of the EU coupled with a re-definition of our commitment to NATO; bearing in mind that NATO is largely a defense organization for the defense of mainland Europe.
 
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coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #16 on: November 28, 2017, 22:16 »
UK bows to EU demands with breakthrough offer on Brexit bill


Britain agrees to total liabilities worth €100bn but will aim to pay less than half

Quote
   

   Britain has bowed to EU demands and agreed to fully honour its financial commitments as identified by Brussels, removing one of the biggest obstacles to a Brexit divorce settlement.

According to several diplomats familiar with the talks, the UK would assume EU liabilities worth up to €100bn although net payments, discharged over many decades, could fall to less than half that amount.

Prime minister Theresa May is expected to formally present the breakthrough offer next week as part of package deal if agreement can be reached on the other issues of citizen rights and the contentious question of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

Quote
   
   Several EU diplomats told the Financial Times the UK had said to commission negotiators it was willing to honour this full range of commitments under an agreed payment mechanism. France, Germany and other member states appear satisfied by the broad outlines of the deal.

Net estimates that the UK share would take account of receipts worth around €28bn, including agricultural payments to UK farmers and structural funds for investment projects in Britain. Actual payments for structural funds could be made years from now.

British officials are working on other potential methods to bring down the net estimate, which the EU originally put at around €60bn. This includes using a higher rate for cancelled investment projects, the receipt of €3.5bn of UK capital at the European Investment Bank — potentially decades from now — and the payment of Britain’s 2018 budget rebate.

This is breaking news at the moment in a few papers, I have not seen it commented on in TV news yet. It will be interesting how this is sold to the British public!!
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coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #17 on: November 29, 2017, 00:41 »

Strip away the layers and Brexit becomes ever more murky
Gina Miller
From; https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/28/brexit-layers-allegations-opaque-funding-brexiters



Quote
Think of Brexit as a matryoshka, or a Russian nesting doll, with voting to leave the EU as the outer doll, representing all the various things we were sold: free trade, prosperity, sovereignty, transparency, increased control over borders, and less money sent to Brussels. Pulling off the outer doll reveals another doll that represents something much more worrying.

A long article from the lady who successfully challenged the UK over it`s handling of Brexit. It`s worth reading but I like her reference to Russian dolls as being symbolic of Brexits many dirty faces.
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coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #18 on: December 04, 2017, 22:44 »
---

Given the governments weak position I expect to see May`s position challenged soon in which case a more robust PM could face the EU.
--

This Brexit stall could mean the end of Theresa May's Government – and the beginning of Corbyn's

From; http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-northern-ireland-border-theresa-may-juncker-dup-deal-government-end-jeremy-corbyn-a8091286.html


Quote
The DUP could get so angry that they scrap their agreement with the Tory-minority Government and resolve to get rid of them. Then May would have to appeal to the Opposition parties, especially Labour, to rescue her in the Commons. Fat chance

Quote
Is this it? The moment when the May premiership is over? Could Corbyn end up taking power in a matter of weeks? It’s at least possible, though I concede it sounds far-fetched at first.


Ask not for whom the bell tolls!



In history, some British Prime Ministers have had their premierships wrecked by the “Irish Question”. Others, in more recent times, have been destroyed by Europe. Theresa May is unique in managing to combine both famously intractable and insoluble issues into one lethal cocktail.

And so, it seems she is about to swallow the poison. Her premiership may be even shorter than many anticipated, and a Jeremy Corbyn-led government could be a fact of British life by the time the snows melt next year.


This article suggests that the Labour Party may benefit from May`s fiasco today, I would expect a challenge from within the Tory Party first; from Boris Johnson and Co.

The weather in the UK for the end of the week is set for ice and cold winds; especially in the vicinity of Downing St.

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coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #19 on: December 05, 2017, 00:09 »

Why the talks failed, in a nutshell.


Theresa May made a commitment to Ireland that Northern Ireland would effectively remain within the Single Market while the rest of the UK left it.

The DUP ( think of them as a cross between trump and farage ) refused to accept this status and as they prop up the government May had to put matters on hold.

Now the Scottish SNP want the same arrangement as do the Welsh and London, ie to remain in the Single market.

Simple ??

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Lugdu

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #20 on: December 05, 2017, 18:10 »
Oui, c'est bien étrange comme solution…
Je serai étonnée que cela aille ainsi !

coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #21 on: December 05, 2017, 22:06 »
Oui, c'est bien étrange comme solution…
Je serai étonnée que cela aille ainsi !


It is strange and seems to have two strands to the debacle;

The first is that the UK government official responsible for liaising with the DUP is May`s deputy Damian Green who is preoccupied with allegations of inappropriate behavior. He seems to have taken his eye off the ball in failing to brief the DUP on the fine detail of the Irish boarder proposals. 

The second is the intended  meaning of the term " regulatory alignment". Many, including the Irish government take it to mean remaining in the Single Market. It seems that the UK government meant it to mean " continuing to follow at least some of the rules of the EU's single market." See; http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-42240339
I take this to mean shadowing the EU regulations, at least for Ireland although it now appears that the policy is intended to apply to the whole of the UK,  in the same way many national currencies are managed so as to shadow stronger currencies.

The consequences are that the UK government is left with egg on it`s face and Scotland, Wales and London immediatly asked for the same terms; or at least say they did to cause mischief; the latest missive from the government suggests they may get their wish. At the same time hard line Brexiters are agitating for a stronger response to the EU`s demands. The danger being that the trade deal terms will not now be discussed until later next year making an accidental hard Brexit more likely.

« Last Edit: December 05, 2017, 22:15 by coffejohn »
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coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #22 on: December 07, 2017, 00:23 »

UK will not pay lump sum Brexit bill

From; https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-will-not-pay-lump-sum-brexit-bill-according-to-draft-eu-uk-brexit-agreement/

Quote
The U.K. will pay no upfront Brexit divorce bill to the European Union but will instead continue to act “as if [it] remained a member state” by meeting its ongoing liabilities as and when they arise for decades to come, according to a draft text of a joint agreement with the EU.

The clause forms part of a proposed draft agreement between London and Brussels that was circulated among U.K. officials Monday, the contents of which have been shared with POLITICO. It is a version of the text that was close to being finalized by Prime Minister Theresa May and Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker before Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party pulled the plug on the deal in a dramatic 11th-hour reversal for the U.K. prime minister.

The details of the document, according to a U.K. official who was given the draft, covers the three phase one issues of money, Northern Ireland and citizens’ rights, which the European Union has stipulated must be sufficiently resolved before the negotiations can move on to the U.K.’s future relationship with the bloc.

The 15-page draft agreement lays out the scope of the U.K.’s financial settlement with Brussels as well as the ongoing influence of the European Court of Justice in U.K. legal matters post Brexit. The commitments contained in the document include an agreement that the U.K. shall:


    Meet its share of the cost for projects signed off in the 21 months after Britain leaves until the end of the EU’s 7-year budget which finishes on December 31, 2020 — the so-called reste à liquider;

    Have the option of participating in some EU programs post Brexit;

    Have “due regard” to ECJ case law on EU citizens’ rights;

    Set up an independent national authority to monitor citizens’ rights concerns.

Another U.K. official familiar with the text said that in addition there was an “explicit” reference that the offer is “conditional on an overall agreement which takes into account the framework for a future relationship and an early agreement on transition,” raising the prospect that it could all be withdrawn should the talks break down.


I cannot find this story in the UK press so I will not comment on it yet.

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coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #23 on: December 08, 2017, 13:31 »

Today the EU gave way to Theresa May at the negotiating table – it turns out the UK does have bargaining power after all

From; http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-theresa-may-negotiations-breakthrough-ireland-borders-dup-eu-uk-bargaining-power-talks-a8098541.html

Now we know that nothing much will change for 21 months and that there won't be an ousting of Theresa May by her own party members

Quote
Theresa May will still be assailed from both sides. She should never have allowed the DUP to hold the talks to ransom, say the Remainers. She has conceded too much, say the hard Brexiters. But she has done the deal.

Four days ago serious people in her own party thought she faced the end of her time as Prime Minister and there was overheated talk about a possible general election. Now she has achieved the breakthrough to the next stage of the Brexit talks, and she seems likely to preside over the whole show, up to and beyond March 2019.



Some readers comments;

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pedallingback
The UK is in a hole. I imagine May has realised what o bunch of amateurish government political idiots she has "negotiating" for Britain compared to the slick, intelligent and educated European negotiating political team.  The likes of Davies and Fox (not to mention Johnson and Gove) have been shown up. But, as usual, typical British hyperbole and smugness today.

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+2
5 minutes ago
madtom1999
Ah! - those aren't red lines. They're stretch marks from bending over backwards!

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+1
8 minutes ago
pedallingback
Misleading headline. But all sides will claim this is a "victory".  The Brits have had to give a lot of ground. 2 fingers to those who thought exiting the UK was as simple as leaving your darts club.

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+3
9 minutes ago
Opinator
The author predicted May would win the snap election comfortably on the day before polling.  May has merely met the basic requirements of the EU in order to be able to proceed to the next phase but the author sees it as a May victory.  What does that say?

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+5
9 minutes ago
Popskihaynes
As usual John, very good observation of the situation.

Currently the job of UK Prime Minister is a suicide role and this would be the case whoever had the job or even of whatever party. Come March 2019 whoever is in the job is 95% certain to see their political career ended because they will be shot at by all sides regardless of the particular deal struck. It will be "Not be enough !" for the Remainers and "Far too much !" for the Leavers.

Oddly though, only Theresa May has the chance of upsetting those odds because of all the sharp division of opinion within the Tory Party. As evidenced by the sometimes hysterical tone of The Economist, FT , Independent etc with regard to Brexit and the fact that 'the jury will be out' for at least a decade before the wisdom or otherwise of leaving the EU becomes clear, these divisions will not go away overnight.

May got her chance as PM because she was acceptable to both wings of her own party, amusingly she may well be the "only person left standing" in this regard after March 2019 and therefore continue in post.

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Lugdu

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #24 on: December 08, 2017, 15:09 »
Tout cela est surprenant, mais en général les Britanniques sont de fins négociateurs…

coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #25 on: December 08, 2017, 23:27 »
Tout cela est surprenant, mais en général les Britanniques sont de fins négociateurs…

I think Junker was afraid May would be ousted and replaced by Boris Johnson.
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coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #26 on: December 10, 2017, 13:57 »

Some Independent readers comments on the "Deal".

Quote
SorryForUK
No offence but calling this national humiliation of Suez-style proportions a 'triumph' is pretty masochistic.

Brexit is so 19th century. Odd, old, weak, backward, impotent. Boring.

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+1
5 hours ago
Popskihaynes
The thing I find most annoying about not just this article but all the others penned by "we who know better" is the total lack of acceptance of just where we are today as a Country. Regardless of which way anybody voted, a majority voted for a radical change in direction, they may be right or wrong but this is where we are going. The political reality is that both in the UK and within the EU, there is no going back now.

If you think about it in human terms, it's all a bit like a relationship where one partner has "been unfaithful", they may decide to stay together but the trust has gone forever, there will always be a "until the next time" hanging over all.

Also it is foolish to imagine that the EU is some kind of paradise because clearly it is not between its unwillingness to acknowledge the practical reality of a multi speed EU and the worm that will destroy it in the end the Euro.

But the real winner will be Britain, not because of some mythical bonanza from trading outside the EU but simply because it will give our economy the kick up the backside it obviously needs, a parallel "Black Wednesday". People may describe students as "snowflakes" but that description applies to the majority of UK business who are far too dependent on the "Bigs" like the EU, Google, Amazon and are desperately short of ideas to create wealth. All the complaints about full employment but low wages and low productivity can be laid at the door of British management reluctant to invest and preferring to suck in cheap labour they don't have to train instead.

I am not saying that Brexit is either a good or a bad idea, what I am saying is that by shaking up the status quo, it is an opportunity for growth and breaking up the complacent professions and industries. We are an evolutionary country not a revolutionary one so let's get on with it and evolve !


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0
19 hours ago
Excelsior
£40 billion is what the UK is morally obliged to pay not a bribe to get a trade deal. If there is a moral obligation or if the UK is getting benefit from participating in specific EU projects there is really no issue.

It is amazing how Remoaners who now look like they are closer than ever to getting what they want, i.e. staying in the SM/CU, are still in an epic sulk.  They should be cheering her for delivering on Brexit no longer means Brexit.  But no, they only have one setting: whinge.

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0
15 hours ago
Whoareyoukidding
no i don't. I have legitimate concerns about any deal and what May has 'delivered' is NOT a deal . It's a step to being butt f**ked on the trade in services. I am tired of saying it - our economy is 80% services right NOW ..so a deal needs to recognise that unless you want the tax take to collapse when we leave the EU

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0
1 day ago
Juvijim
Sadly, all the talk is about commerce. Ireland will destroy the current Brexit plan, as it has not dealt with the issues. But the greater loss will be that Putin will feel strengthened and the EU will come under military pressure, and Britain, after Brexit will not feel obliged to help out. And so the cycle of destruction & suffering will begin again. That is Britain's treachery, and it should feel ashamed of itself

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+2
23 hours ago
Danton
with continuous budget cuts on defense over decades(and gross mis-spending such as an aircraft carrier without aircraft), support from Britain with EU would be growing smaller & smaller. the relative loss to EU has probably already been factored in to EU strategy. a few excellent special forces by themselves cannot win a war

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+1
20 hours ago
Gabrielle
I think you are dreaming about British military support.  They could have good will, even - as in September 1939 - declare war against enemies of their EU friends, but it's difficult to fight with broom sticks or plane models on strings.

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0
20 hours ago
dagijosy
I have received $18234 in one month by working online from home. I am very happy thay i found this job and now i am able to earn more dollars online which is better than my regular office job FGb. Everybody can get this job and earn more income online by just follow this link and instructions there to get started...................    cashmaker90.tk

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0
19 hours ago
Excelsior
The Russians are Coming!

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0
2 days ago
batman
For once you are right. Nothing has changed. Shulcz has just confirmed Jaques Delors ideas are still  prevalent in the EU. Namely the desire to make all EU members adhere to the German policies and nascent power in the upcoming EU superstate. Read it and weep remainers. The game is up. The plan is out in the open.

The direction  of travel of the future EU is there for all to see. Is it only the Cleggs, the Souburys , the Clarkes and the supercilious remainers that choose to ignore the obvious and dismiss the proposals in the face of all the evidence to the contrary.  We must escape this insane project before we are locked in.

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-12
2 days ago
49niner
I take it you don't like Germans? What a sad, bigoted person you are.

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+4
2 days ago
albertross
Did we read the same article? It was about plans for Brexit, nothing about closer EU integration.

"Read it and weep remainers. The game is up. The plan is out in the open."
If only!

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+4
2 days ago
Paul Simon
batman, you suffer from paranoia and you need help. I hope you find it soon and I wish you all the best.

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+2
1 day ago
Stuperman
It's those Germans again! Who demonstrate leadership but share decisions and responsibilites. It is one of 27, with five waiting to join. UK on its own. Umm!

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+4
1 day ago
staysharp51
Worst still we are locked out !
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coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #27 on: December 10, 2017, 22:13 »


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Lugdu

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #28 on: December 11, 2017, 15:36 »
extra !