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Author Topic: German Economy in Danger of Overheating?  (Read 1086 times)

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Atlantis

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German Economy in Danger of Overheating?
« on: January 26, 2014, 23:46 »
Spon reports that the actual growth of the German economy could be as high as 2.8%, which is phenomenal for a developed economy. The official growth figures are around 1.6%. The paper points out that many figures are registered with a time delay and that the official figure of 1.6% doesn't take account of many positive figures released recently, such as employment, tax revenue, external trade, consumer index, business index, etc., all of which indicate a much higher growth.

Quote
Doch andere Daten deuten in die Gegenrichtung: Die Beschäftigung (neue Zahlen am Donnerstag), die Steuereinnahmen, der Außenhandel, die Konsumentenstimmung (der GfK-Konsumklimaindex erscheint am Mittwoch), auch der Ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex (neu am Montag) - all diese Zahlen weisen Rekordwerte aus. Nur die Volkswirtschaft als Ganzes nicht? Irgendwas scheint da nicht zu stimmen.

If this were true, now would be the time for the central bank to raise interests and limit the amount of money, which it can't do because of slow growth in the South. The paper therefore recommends that the government take measures such as cutting spending and increasing taxes to avoid overheating. Nevertheless, the new coalition government is going in the opposite direction of increasing spending.

Hopefully, this will help to pull the EZone out off recession.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2014, 23:48 by Atlantis »

coffejohn

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Re: German Economy in Danger of Overheating?
« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2014, 10:39 »
Quote
If this were true, now would be the time for the central bank to raise interests and limit the amount of money, which it can't do because of slow growth in the South. The paper therefore recommends that the government take measures such as cutting spending and increasing taxes to avoid overheating. Nevertheless, the new coalition government is going in the opposite direction of increasing spending.

It probably is true being in line with the situation in the UK. The interesting point being how Germany will react to being unable to control it`s own economy; this will be a case of the biter being bitten.

Watch this space!!
Go solar, go slow.

Atlantis

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Re: German Economy in Danger of Overheating?
« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2014, 11:31 »
The interesting point being how Germany will react to being unable to control it`s own economy;

As the article points out, the German government could do something about it: increase taxes and cut spending instead of the increase in spending decided by the current government.

What this shows is that economic decisions will always be driven by political motives. That is the same in Germany, Greece and Spain. Somehow a comforting idea. We are all the same after all.

coffejohn

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Re: German Economy in Danger of Overheating?
« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2014, 14:36 »
Quote
We are all the same after all.

Or as Orwell wrote in Animal farm: "All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others".

Watch this space  :-\ .
Go solar, go slow.

selber

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Re: German Economy in Danger of Overheating?
« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2017, 11:05 »
The monetary policy of the ECB is heat up the economy, for the crisis countries. That this leads to overheating in Germany is completely logical . But this overheating was always been interpreted as  " benefiting ".

coffejohn

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Re: German Economy in Danger of Overheating?
« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2017, 11:55 »
The monetary policy of the ECB is heat up the economy, for the crisis countries. That this leads to overheating in Germany is completely logical . But this overheating was always been interpreted as  " benefiting ".

This simply takes us back to the "one size do`s not fit all" argument re the Euro.

At least German citizens have a chance to choose next week??
Go solar, go slow.

selber

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Re: German Economy in Danger of Overheating?
« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2017, 23:47 »
This simply takes us back to the "one size do`s not fit all" argument re the Euro.

At least German citizens have a chance to choose next week??
There is no real choice in Germany . The parties do not differ basically , only in the manner of managing the base  . Who does not agree with the political principle can only protest by choosing AFD . Not many will do so because the AFD would be a disaster if they would rule . If I would believe the AFD can win , I would not choose AFD . But I do not believe it and I want to choose the only way of protest . Protest, not choose, I do .

coffejohn

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Re: German Economy in Danger of Overheating?
« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2017, 20:38 »
The monetary policy of the ECB is heat up the economy, for the crisis countries. That this leads to overheating in Germany is completely logical . But this overheating was always been interpreted as  " benefiting ".

It`s not just the ECB`s policy that is overheating Germany`s economy, it`s the very existence of the Euro which the ECB is  protecting.

 In many ways Germany and Greece are at opposite poles of the same distortions induced by the imposition of the Euro. Greece has no way out of it`s dilemma, Germany has but cannot take it without taking massive losses and dragging the EU into chaos; one of the reasons the UK is attempting to leave the EU.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 20:48 by coffejohn »
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coffejohn

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Re: German Economy in Danger of Overheating?
« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2017, 00:46 »
The Economic Path for Germany


Clemens Fuest, President of the Ifo Institute in Munich, says that although Chancellor Angela Merkel has secured a fourth term, Germany cannot afford business as usual. The economy faces serious challenges, and the new government should focus on addressing them.
Go solar, go slow.