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Author Topic: How dangerous is Trump?  (Read 5508 times)

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Frank Zappa

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Re: How dangerous is Trump?
« Reply #90 on: May 26, 2017, 19:01 »
Trump - Germany is bad very bad

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/donald-trump-juncker-bestaetigt-kritik-an-deutschland-a-1149336.html

Trump accused Germany because of its trade surplus . He wants bilateral trade agreements, and who has no barrier against the United States , for those  will be no barrier in the United States . But the barrier that he sees with the Germans is called Euro . How should we dismantle them ? Someone has to explain to this president , that trade balances are regulated by currencies . What Germans buy too little, other euro countries buy too much . The US is not disadvantaged .

Depends how you look at it! The US (and GB) actually have volunatarily chosen the path to these huge trade deficits by a policy of Reagan/Thatcher in the 80s that has been putting all their hope in the financial sector accompanied with a deindustrialisation of the manufactoring sector. Today both countries seem to regret these decisions, but they should have a closer look at their past decisions instead of blaming others for the outcome.

In fact it is estimated that around half of Germany's trade surplus can be attributed to the euro. The person who could reduce the German trade surplus the quickest is actually not German, but Italian: A proclamation of higher interest rates by Mario Draghi would have a much bigger effect than painstakingly trying to further increase German government orders.

After all inside a currency union of so heterogenous states like in the eurozone there will always be trade imbalances. Even in the US California also has a huge trade surplus with the rest of the US.



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selber

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Re: How dangerous is Trump?
« Reply #91 on: May 26, 2017, 20:15 »
Depends how you look at it! The US (and GB) actually have volunatarily chosen the path to these huge trade deficits by a policy of Reagan/Thatcher in the 80s that has been putting all their hope in the financial sector accompanied with a deindustrialisation of the manufactoring sector. Today both countries seem to regret these decisions, but they should have a closer look at their past decisions instead of blaming others for the outcome.

In fact it is estimated that around half of Germany's trade surplus can be attributed to the euro. The person who could reduce the German trade surplus the quickest is actually not German, but Italian: A proclamation of higher interest rates by Mario Draghi would have a much bigger effect than painstakingly trying to further increase German government orders.

After all inside a currency union of so heterogenous states like in the eurozone there will always be trade imbalances. Even in the US California also has a huge trade surplus with the rest of the US.
I try to see it as it is. On trade balances , one does not recognize a profiter. To sell a lot may be an advantage for some . But be able to buy a lot too . In principle money is moved . But by no means exclusively in the form of goods. USA and the UK are much invested in other countries . From these countries profits flow . And with these money a trade deficit is paid . A trade deficit is not a disadvantage if you can pay it . It's all about the money, and who makes money in the world must also spend it in the world to profit . You can not profit from money you do not use . The rest is done by the interaction of different currencies . Purchases one too much devalues his currency , and he can buy less . The same principle is reversed if one sells too much . It is true that 50 percent of the German trade surplus is attributable to the euro . But the trade deficits ( with US ) of other euro countries would also not be possible without the euro . The US has no disadvantage . In principle, I mean Trump is an evil populist. He tells the Americans, because the Germans are selling so many cars here, you have no work . But the Americans could also work for the MORE, things you do not export . The money would be there .
And another supplement - California will find it difficult to achieve a trade surplus within the US, because in the US the targets balances have to be balanced once in the year . That it is not so in the Eurozone, that is my main accusation against the euro . I think it's you, you've seen the euro criticism .  The euro is not an advantage for Germany . But the advantage of  others turned to a disadvantage . The euro increased the purchasing power in some countries . The economy could not match this .
« Last Edit: May 26, 2017, 20:46 by selber »

coffejohn

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Re: How dangerous is Trump?
« Reply #92 on: May 26, 2017, 21:14 »
-- The euro is not an advantage for Germany . But the advantage of  others turned to a disadvantage . The euro increased the purchasing power in some countries . The economy could not match this .

While I normally argue that the Euro is an advantage to Germany I can see how it is beginning to work against Germany.

In seems to me that Germany has enjoyed a trading advantage due to the Euro in the same manner the USA benefited from it`s status as a world reserve currency.

While this has benefited the German economy at the national and share owner level it is not an unalloyed benefit for workers; although it has given them security of employment.

Like the USA it has also led to massive outsourcing of labour with much of German manufacturing being exported; with the danger that in a downturn German companies may retain the cheaper foreign production at the expense of national production.

At the same time Germany has built up massive T2 surpluses which can never be repaid and runs a large deficit which resembles the dollar mountains that OPEC members accumulated after the 1970`s oil price shock. At the time this caused disruption to world currency markets; raising the question of Germany`s surplus doing the same to the EuroZone.
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selber

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Re: How dangerous is Trump?
« Reply #93 on: May 26, 2017, 21:24 »
At the time this caused disruption to world currency markets; raising the question of Germany`s surplus doing the same to the EuroZone.
Yes, trade surpluses irritate the others . But no one talks about the deficits from which they are profiting  . One could also say Germany has no export surplus , Germany has an import deficit . But if you abolish the deficit , who will pay the deficit of the rest of the  Eurozone ?
« Last Edit: May 26, 2017, 21:56 by selber »

coffejohn

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Re: How dangerous is Trump?
« Reply #94 on: May 26, 2017, 21:59 »
Yes, trade surpluses irritate the others . But no one talks about the deficits from which they are profiting  . One could also say. Germany has no export surplus , Germany has an import deficit . But if you abolish the deficit , who will pay the deficit of the rest of the  Eurozone ?

I think the German surplus may end up being more than "irritating" :)

An "import deficit" is an interesting way of turning the table. But yes, if Germany imported more goods and services from the rest of the EU the matter would be resolved.
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selber

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Re: How dangerous is Trump?
« Reply #95 on: May 26, 2017, 22:05 »
I think the German surplus may end up being more than "irritating" :)

An "import deficit" is an interesting way of turning the table. But yes, if Germany imported more goods and services from the rest of the EU the matter would be resolved.
Trade accounts are controlled by currencies. Why do you refuse to understand that ? There are some countries which would want a trade deficit with Germany . That is why the euro is attractive .

selber

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Re: How dangerous is Trump?
« Reply #96 on: May 27, 2017, 07:13 »
While I normally argue that the Euro is an advantage to Germany I can see how it is beginning to work against Germany.

In seems to me that Germany has enjoyed a trading advantage due to the Euro in the same manner the USA benefited from it`s status as a world reserve currency.

While this has benefited the German economy at the national and share owner level it is not an unalloyed benefit for workers; although it has given them security of employment.


I'm still making a start. Your comparison lags. While the Arabs sell for dollars more than they shop, from which the US profits, it is the reverse with the euro. Some euro countries buy more with euros than they sell. Germany can not benefit from this. While the petrodollar raises the value of the dollar, the imports of many euro countries lower the value of the euro . I'm trying to simplify the issue. If I spend more money than I earn , then I get a problem when no one gives me more credit . But the ECB gives unlimited credit . So many are pleasure in giving out more money than they earn . I mean the Target balances. The are never balanced, and Germany is now creditor for about 800 billion euros. But there is 1. no way to pay and 2. no obligation to pay . Who sells so can not profit. And to the others, the German exports raise the value of the euro. This allows the deficits in many euro-countries from which the US is benefiting. We all know - without the euro, some countries could not have imported so much. Greece would not have been able to increase its consumption with the drachma. And they were not just buying cars, they also bought Iphones and many other things that did not come from the euro area . In trade with Germany the euro is a disadvantage for the USA, but in trade with many other euro countries an advantage . And to the deficits that have nothing to do with the euro. A few years ago an American real estate fund bought 100,000 apartments in Dresden, because of the large number that were sold at one blow excited the look . But Dresden is just one example, the Americans own very much in Germany, stocks and real estate . In the form of rents and dividends flows much money from Germany into the USA. This money is what makes the trade deficit possible . For the Americans, the deficit is abaut 500 billion per year (in the World ) . That is what makes America rich . A self-sufficient America would not be richer than other countries .
« Last Edit: May 27, 2017, 07:42 by selber »

selber

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Re: How dangerous is Trump?
« Reply #97 on: May 27, 2017, 08:23 »
At the same time Germany has built up massive T2 surpluses which can never be repaid and runs a large deficit which
Germany has ? The ECB has ! In the pre-crisis period, the deficits were the highest , and T2 balances grew the fastest. This is what I meant with " increased purchasing power " . This pleased many countries , but their own economy could not match the . Therefore, the loss of sustainable jobs , which were replaced with debt-demanding jobs . Until the crisis .
« Last Edit: May 27, 2017, 09:23 by selber »

selber

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Re: How dangerous is Trump?
« Reply #98 on: May 27, 2017, 09:32 »
Depends how you look at it! The US (and GB) actually have volunatarily chosen the path to these huge trade deficits
It is always done as if a trade deficit is bad for a country . But a lot of countries would like to learn the trick , how to getting a trade deficit . It could free them from poverty .

selber

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Re: How dangerous is Trump?
« Reply #99 on: May 31, 2017, 04:58 »
Quote
Donald Trump signs $110bn arms deal hours after landing in Saudi Arabia
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-latest-saudi-arabia-billions-arms-deal-military-sales-a7746601.html

A good deal . Jobs , jobs, jobs, no matter what the cost . The wahabist Saudiarabia is the most similar state to the Islamic state . With its oil billions, the Saudis have been missionary all over in Africa since the sixties, and today even in Europe . This is the root of Islamism . The Saudis will equip Islamic fighters with these weapons .
« Last Edit: May 31, 2017, 05:15 by selber »

coffejohn

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Re: How dangerous is Trump?
« Reply #100 on: January 14, 2018, 16:42 »

Giant "Shithole" Projected Onto Trump's D.C. Hotel


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