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Author Topic: Money. Gold, Fiat, Crypto and the Euro.  (Read 1762 times)

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selber

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Re: Money. Gold, Fiat, Crypto and the Euro.
« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2017, 05:53 »
@coffejohn

For me, Bitcoin sounds like the chips you get at the roulette table. But I also have no idea.

Quote
Electronic payments expert Dave Birch has said in the past that “one doesn’t invest in bitcoin, one gambles on bitcoin”. Those working in the area advise anyone planning on buying the currency to only invest as much as they are prepared to lose.


https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/oct/01/will-bitcoin-ever-be-safe-investment-gamble

But there are experts who see it similar .

coffejohn

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Re: Money. Gold, Fiat, Crypto and the Euro.
« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2017, 11:28 »
@coffejohn

For me, Bitcoin sounds like the chips you get at the roulette table. But I also have no idea.
 

I have followed crypto for some years but have not "invested" in it (to my cost). I think it is now worth a second look but am concerned at the security vacuum it exists in. The various attempts to popularise crypto by developing mobile apps adds to the security dangers for new comers while established users seem to be adopting systems that are less user friendly but more secure.

 The second problem is establishing a value for crypto!
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coffejohn

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Re: Money. Gold, Fiat, Crypto and the Euro.
« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2017, 00:36 »

Bitcoin Prices Still Firmly Above $7000, Without China
From; https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2017/11/04/bitcoin-prices-still-firmly-above-7000-without-china/#5671eb006f02

Quote
What’s behind the digital currency’s breathtaking run?

Certainly, it isn’t the lifting of regulations which halted trade of digital currency in China, as some expected (back in September, China banned Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) and shut Bitcoin exchanges, sending the digital currency’s price tumbling from $5000 to close to $3000).

Instead, there have been a number of positive developments that helped build investor confidence and hype in the “people’s” currency. One of them was the stepping up of government regulations in US and Japan to protect the cryptocurrency markets from possible manipulation, while limiting the supply of new coin offerings.


---------------

I cannot see any sensible reason for this continued surge in price but it is self evident that there is a market here ripe for speculation. But, I feel, not for investment.

My issues with Bitcoin and most other crypto`s are:

1- The organisations that control these "currencies" are the owners of the mining factories. These are becoming centralised to such an extent that they now dictate development and operational terms of trade within the system. This is contrary to the basic principle of crypto which is based upon the tenant of decentralisation.

2- Speed of transaction is now slowing down which means not only that it takes a long time to complete a deal but if the "currency" starts to crash it will be impossible for the vast majority of investors to get their money back without massive losses.

3- As government regulation is applied the trading companies will come to resemble conventional banks and investment houses negating the attraction of the "currency".



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selber

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Re: Money. Gold, Fiat, Crypto and the Euro.
« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2017, 12:30 »
@coffejohn Bitcoin is like a currency in the sea of countless currencies. Like any currency, a victim of speculators. If not interesting for speculators, then not for you or me. People are the problem, not currencies.It is always and everywhere about the money, and especially about the money of others.

coffejohn

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Re: Money. Gold, Fiat, Crypto and the Euro.
« Reply #19 on: November 09, 2017, 23:30 »

The magic money tree does exist, according to modern monetary theory

From; http://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/actually-the-magic-money-tree-does-exist-according-to-modern-monetary-theory-a8021501.html


Quote
The crisis of the neoliberal order has resuscitated a political idea widely believed to be consigned to the dustbin of history. Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, and the neo-nationalist, anti-globalisation and anti-establishment backlash engulfing the West all involve a yearning for a relic of the past: national sovereignty.

In response to these challenging times, economist William Mitchell and political theorist Thomas Fazi reconceptualise the nation state as a vehicle for progressive change. They show how despite the ravages of neoliberalism, the state still contains resources for democratic control of a nation's economy and finances. The populist turn provides an opening to develop an ambitious but feasible left political strategy.

Reclaiming the State offers an urgent, provocative and prescient political analysis of our current predicament, and lays out a comprehensive strategy for revitalising progressive economics in the 21st century.

This is a long article based on the book; "Reclaiming the State A Progressive Vision of Sovereignty for a Post-Neoliberal World"  at ; http://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/actually-the-magic-money-tree-does-exist-according-to-modern-monetary-theory-a8021501.html

and; https://www.plutobooks.com/9780745337326/reclaiming-the-state/



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coffejohn

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Re: Money. Gold, Fiat, Crypto and the Euro.
« Reply #20 on: December 08, 2017, 23:49 »

Bitcoin has become the ultimate Klondyke.

From; http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-08/20-times-more-volatile-dollar

Quote
very bank knows BTC’s extraordinary gains are a crowd delusion fuelled by the extraordinary promise of free wealth!


"Bitcoin is a Ponzi Scheme with no one in charge"

Quote
Bitcoin has been in existence for all of eight years but a debate is raging in the investing community: Is the cryptocurrency actually useful beyond just being a vehicle for speculation? At its worst, does it help facilitate highly questionable and illegal transactions and activity? JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently called bitcoin a “fraud” that “won’t end well.” The cryptocurrency is up 800% in the past year. So bitcoin investors can have a good laugh at Mr. Dimon’s expense, for now. Important questions and skepticism remain. Among the cryptocurrency's big skeptics is currency guru and bestselling author Jim Rickards. He sat down to discuss this (and much more) during a new "Real Conversation" with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Rickards begins: “This is the only topic where I agree with Jamie Dimon. I've been a pretty harsh critic of Jamie Dimon. But when he says 'it’s a fraud, it's a Ponzi'[ scheme]'-- I agree completely. I call it a Ponzi with no one in charge. There's no Madoff, but it's working that way.” While bitcoin has its fervent supporters, Rickards says the cryptocurrency invented in 2009 still has too much to prove, and is involved in too many shady transactions to be taken seriously. He cites things like drug dealing, arms dealing, money laundering and tax evasion, as well as "worse things that I don't want to even mention, more reprehensible than that." He goes on further: “Bitcoin has not been combat tested in a business cycle. We have not had a recession or a financial crisis since 2009. I’ve seen all these other asset classes go through many business cycles. I know how they’ll behave. Bitcoin has not been tested in that arena.” Rickards and McCullough both say they have both been accused of being "technophobic" because of their distaste for bitcoin. Rickards says that couldn’t be further from the truth. “A lot of my private equity investments are very forward-leaning in technology. I embrace technology. But I know a lot about markets. A lot of the tech groupies who love bitcoin know a lot about tech, but not so much about the markets.” Until proven otherwise, Rickards says investors should stay away. “For the market as a whole, for wealth managers, for people trying to preserve wealth, for investors, this is no place to be,” Rickards says.

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coffejohn

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Re: Money. Gold, Fiat, Crypto and the Euro.
« Reply #21 on: February 03, 2018, 15:47 »
Why Albert Einstein Thought We Were All Insane

From; https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-02/why-albert-einstein-thought-we-were-all-insane

Quote
In the early summer of 1914, Albert Einstein was about to start a prestigious new job as Director of the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for Physics.

The position was a big deal for the 35-year old Einstein– confirmation that he was one of the leading scientific minds in the world. And he was excited about what he would be able to achieve there.

But within weeks of Einstein’s arrival, the German government canceled plans for the Institute; World War I had broken out, and all of Europe was gearing up for one of the bloodiest conflicts in human history.

The impact of the Great War was immeasurable.

It cost the lives of 10 million people. It bankrupted entire nations.

The war ripped two major European powers off the map– the Austro Hungarian Empire, and the Ottoman Empire– and deposited them in the garbage can of history.

Austria-Hungary in particular boasted the second largest land mass in Europe, the third highest population, and one of the biggest economies. Plus it was a leading manufacturer of high-tech machinery.

Yet by the end of the war it would no longer exist.

World War I also played a major role in the emergence of communism in Russia through the 1917 Bolshevik revolution.

Plus it was also a critical factor in the astonishing rise of the Nazi party in Germany.

Without the Great War, Adolf Hitler would have been an obscure Austrian vagabond, and our world would be an entirely different place.

One of the most bizarre things about World War I was how predictable it was.

Tensions had been building in Europe for years, and the threat of war was deemed so likely that most major governments invested heavily in detailed war plans.

The most famous was Germany’s “Schlieffen Plan”, a military offensive strategy named after its architect, Count Alfred von Schlieffen.

To describe the Schlieffen Plan as “comprehensive” is a massive understatement.

As AJP describes in his book War by Timetable, the Schlieffen Plan called for rapidly moving hundreds of thousands of soldiers to the front lines, plus food, equipment, horses, munitions, and other critical supplies, all in a matter of DAYS.

Tens of thousands of trains were criss-crossing Europe during the mobilization, and as you can imagine, all the trains had to run precisely on time.

A train that was even a minute early or a minute late would cause a chain reaction to the rest of the plan, affecting the time tables of other trains and other troop movements.

In short, there was no room for error.

In many respects the Schlieffen Plan is still with us to this day– not with regards to war, but for monetary policy.

Like the German General Staff more than a century ago, modern central bankers concoct the most complicated, elaborate plans to engineer economic victory.

Their success depends on being able to precisely control the [sometimes irrational] behavior of hundreds of millions of consumers, millions of businesses, dozens of foreign nations, and trillions of dollars of capital.

And just like the obtusely complex war plans from 1914, central bank policy requires that all the trains run on time. There is no room for error.

Quote
This is nuts. Economies are comprised of billions of moving pieces that are beyond anyone’s control and often have competing interests.

A government that’s $21 trillion in debt requires cheap money (i.e. low interest rates) to stay afloat.

Yet low interest rates are severely punishing for savers, retirees, and pension funds (including Social Security) because they’re unable to generate a sufficient rate of return to meet their needs.

Low interest rates are great for capital intensive businesses that need to borrow money. But they also create dangerous asset bubbles and can eventually cause a painful rise in inflation.

Raise interest rates too high, however, and it could bankrupt debtors and throw the economy into a tailspin.

Like I said, there’s no room for error– they have to find the perfect balance between growth and inflation.

Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio summed it up perfectly last month when he said,

    “It becomes more and more difficult to balance those things as time goes on. . . It may not be a problem in the next year or two, but the risk of not getting it right increases with time.”

Today there’s a changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve– Janet Yellen is leaving her post as chair, and she’s being succeeded by Jerome Powell.

Yellen leaves her post having brought down the unemployment rate in the United States to 4.2%, which certainly sounds nice.

Yet at the same time, workers’ wages (when adjusted for inflation) have hardly budged under her tenure.

Americans’ savings rate has been cut in half. Consumer debt and student loans are at all-time highs.

And dangerous asset bubbles have expanded, from stocks to bonds to property.

The risk of them getting it wrong is clearly growing.

That’s why having your own Plan B is so important.

It’s a simple concept: don’t keep all of your eggs in one basket, especially when the people who control the basket have such a tiny margin of error.

The right Plan B makes sense no matter what happens, or doesn’t happen, next. If they get it right, you won’t be worse off. But if they get it wrong, you’ll still prosper.

I truly hope they don’t get it wrong.

But if they ever do, people may finally look back and wonder how we could have been so foolish to hand total control of our economy over to an unelected committee of bureaucrats with a mediocre track record... and then expect them to get it right forever.

It’s pretty insane when you think about it.

As Einstein quipped at the height of World War I in 1917, “What a pity we don’t live on Mars so that we could observe the futile activities of human beings only through a telescope. . .”

*  * *

I`ll leave it up to readers to decide whether I am referring to the UK or the EU, or both!

 
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coffejohn

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Re: Money. Gold, Fiat, Crypto and the Euro.
« Reply #22 on: February 05, 2018, 23:56 »

The Bitcoin Threat

Unless a currency has been authenticated by a government, it is unlikely to be fully trusted. But that does not mean that it cannot become a plaything for the naïve and gullible, or a weapon of financial mass destruction for political belligerents around the world.

From; https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/bitcoin-threat-to-political-stability-by-harold-james-2018-02

Quote
The extraordinary volatility of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has become a threat not just to the international financial system, but also to political order.-----


I`ll leave the rest of this article to those interested. My view on bitcoin is that it is fools gold in a world of deniers of expertise; the world is seeing it`s first global Ponzi scheme executed on the net with no possibility of regulation.

While many have and may still make a fortune out of it most will loose their shirts.

 
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selber

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Re: Money. Gold, Fiat, Crypto and the Euro.
« Reply #23 on: February 06, 2018, 09:07 »
The Bitcoin Threat

Unless a currency has been authenticated by a government, it is unlikely to be fully trusted. But that does not mean that it cannot become a plaything for the naïve and gullible, or a weapon of financial mass destruction for political belligerents around the world.

From; https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/bitcoin-threat-to-political-stability-by-harold-james-2018-02

I`ll leave the rest of this article to those interested. My view on bitcoin is that it is fools gold in a world of deniers of expertise; the world is seeing it`s first global Ponzi scheme executed on the net with no possibility of regulation.

While many have and may still make a fortune out of it most will loose their shirts.
I would imagine that Bitcoin is also used for money laundering. Profits from organized crime. Even though the internet is out of state control, global financial bubbles have existed before. Whether dollars or euros, if the money is "working" globally it escapes state control.In addition, a central bank is not necessarily interested in hindering global money transactions.The national interest is more important than a global interest, observable in many global issues. The brightest heads of the universities become bankers. The value of every science, every invention is measured in money. People learn - my money works better than me.But money does not really work - the banks make money in which they cheat each other and produce bubbles. When they burst they are saved by the States. Alternatively, from the central banks - with cheap money.

coffejohn

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Re: Money. Gold, Fiat, Crypto and the Euro.
« Reply #24 on: February 06, 2018, 22:01 »
I would imagine that Bitcoin is also used for money laundering. Profits from organized crime.---But money does not really work - the banks make money in which they cheat each other and produce bubbles. When they burst they are saved by the States. Alternatively, from the central banks - with cheap money.

I agree that hot money is a major spur to Bitcoin which may be why banks and regulators are clamping down on it. Your second point is more interesting "money does not really work". This is certainly a driver with the young who seem to be the force behind Bitcoin. My concern is that they, the young, have little understanding of how society and finance works. This makes them vulnerable to what I shall call "fake concepts" put forward by people with dubious motives.

What is certain is that when Bitcoin go`s wrong neither the state nor banks will bail them out.
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selber

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Re: Money. Gold, Fiat, Crypto and the Euro.
« Reply #25 on: February 06, 2018, 23:51 »
I agree that hot money is a major spur to Bitcoin which may be why banks and regulators are clamping down on it. Your second point is more interesting "money does not really work". This is certainly a driver with the young who seem to be the force behind Bitcoin. My concern is that they, the young, have little understanding of how society and finance works. This makes them vulnerable to what I shall call "fake concepts" put forward by people with dubious motives.

What is certain is that when Bitcoin go`s wrong neither the state nor banks will bail them out.
Bitcoin does not need to be saved - everyone carries the own risk. That's exactly what is not possible with banks. All our money is in the banks, and if a bank fails, then many companies that have done nothing wrong except to have the money on the wrong bank. Banks are also coupled to each other, many Banks had to be rescued because Lehmann was not rescued.Bitcoin will never have such a position.The second point - the Young doubt our understanding of how society and finance work.Private money seeks profit at the banks - with appropriate investment. But the losses are socialized.If an investor invests money at the bank to make a profit, the bank must make even more profit in order to have a profit of its own. All the money is in the banks - it does not work without money press.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2018, 00:02 by selber »