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In the beginning of 2015 Lithuania will become the 19th member of the eurozone. How do you expect the number of eurozone members to develop in the following 10 years until the year 2025?

There will be more than 19 eurozone member states in 2025.
23 (79.3%)
There will still be 19 eurozone member states.
1 (3.4%)
There will be less than 19 eurozone member states in 10 years.
1 (3.4%)
The euro won't exist any more.
4 (13.8%)

Total Members Voted: 15

Voting closed: December 24, 2014, 16:36

Author Topic: The future of the eurozone  (Read 69355 times)

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selber

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Re: The future of the eurozone
« Reply #435 on: January 25, 2018, 00:43 »
They may not be taking advantage but they are driving the bus and as such can determine the route and speed. This may be inevitable but it is not healthy for EU unity and democracy; it is one of the prime reasons for Brexit and seems to be a driver of German political instability.

It has also led to the ludicrous state of affairs were a French leader is making a bid for EU hegemony while Germany is distracted by internal contradictions; this as the rest of the EU is running around like headless chickens. Brexit may be straining UK nerves but at least we have decided that a Europe run by a myopic bus crew is not for us.
Avoid the inevitable - would that be helpful?I see France and Germany as leaders of different blocks. France also represents the interests of Spain and Italy here. But if they have softened Germany, then by no means countries like the Netherlands, Finland and Austria.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2018, 00:49 by selber »

littledirtybrighella

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Re: The future of the eurozone
« Reply #436 on: January 25, 2018, 18:15 »
@littledirtybrighella
You are implying that France and Germany are taking advantage of their leadership roles. This is not the case, France and Germany are not a duo.
Anybody in a leadership role takes advantage from his leadership role . The opposite would  be the outlier in the history of mankind. By the way they are a duo , but an asymmetric one, with Germany by far dominant as for  economy, which is the most important aspect as long as we stay inside EU, but France far better as for military force, for instance. Thus, it's not so strange that their positions and interests are often divergent and there is a continuous bargaining between them.  They were a duo since the beginning , when there was West Germany ,and they are are still a curious duo,a kind of  marriage of convenience, so there 's no love and the spouses always grumble against each other, the husband is the one who brings home the bacon and he's the boss  ,as it used to be in the old times, but he needs the wife's blessing  for the big decisions  and acts.
I pazzi e i fanciulli possono dire quello che vogliono-
Lunatics and kids are allowed to say what they want

selber

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Re: The future of the eurozone
« Reply #437 on: January 26, 2018, 06:39 »
Anybody in a leadership role takes advantage from his leadership role . The opposite would  be the outlier in the history of mankind. By the way they are a duo , but an asymmetric one, with Germany by far dominant as for  economy, which is the most important aspect as long as we stay inside EU, but France far better as for military force, for instance. Thus, it's not so strange that their positions and interests are often divergent and there is a continuous bargaining between them.  They were a duo since the beginning , when there was West Germany ,and they are are still a curious duo,a kind of  marriage of convenience, so there 's no love and the spouses always grumble against each other, the husband is the one who brings home the bacon and he's the boss  ,as it used to be in the old times, but he needs the wife's blessing  for the big decisions  and acts.
We are talking about the Eurozone! The power relations in the ECB do not give Germany a leading role. ECB President, Vice President and Eurogroup Chief are Southern Europeans.There is politics against the crisis, that's not politics for Germany . Even if for diplomatic reasons is make a good mine to a bad game - the Germans are convinced that the ECB is violating legitimate German interests.It is an unchangeable status quo, at least for the Germans. You have to accept what you can not change. But you want to change the status quo because of the crisis. Just as the Germans can not do this without you, so you can not do this without the Germans.That's what bothers you. I also see in your comment an inadmissible mixture of politics and economics. The strength of the economy has nothing to do with the political distribution of power in the EU. The economy is a private sector.And to the "Duo" France and Germany - French's head of government meets regularly with government representatives of the Mediterranean countries, in order to obtain a common position against Germany. I think it is not wrong to see France as the leader of a Southern Alliance.Eurozone policy is the result of mutual dependency, even mutual blackmail, and has nothing to do with any leadership.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2018, 06:43 by selber »

Lugdu

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Re: The future of the eurozone
« Reply #438 on: January 26, 2018, 13:32 »
@selber
Eh bien, si Macron vous lisait, il serait déçu : lui qui se veut d'une pensée capitaliste financière plutot orientée Nord-Europe, vous le rangez avec les pays du Sud !

selber

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Re: The future of the eurozone
« Reply #439 on: January 26, 2018, 13:44 »
@selber
Eh bien, si Macron vous lisait, il serait déçu : lui qui se veut d'une pensée capitaliste financière plutot orientée Nord-Europe, vous le rangez avec les pays du Sud !
There I contradict. Capitalism in the Eurozone is the same everywhere. Macron wants to make France more capitalist, but that does not help anybody in Germany. Macron wants bigger European financial pots. From this benefits those who pay less than they cash .These are other than Germany. Germany should pay more - that's all what I understand.

littledirtybrighella

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Re: The future of the eurozone
« Reply #440 on: January 26, 2018, 18:02 »
I also see in your comment an inadmissible mixture of politics and economics.
Are you really thinking you can even try to separate their mixture ?
About the duo, anniversaries are generally just a boring part of the show-politics, nevertheless :
http://de.euronews.com/2018/01/22/paris-berlin-55-jahre-elysee-vertrag
http://fr.euronews.com/2018/01/22/vers-un-nouveau-traite-franco-allemand
About  the proposal linked by F.Zappa, if you want to challenge Google translator, here an Italian economist:
http://politicaeconomiablog.blogspot.it/2018/01/tragico-ma-non-serio-il-surreale.html
I pazzi e i fanciulli possono dire quello che vogliono-
Lunatics and kids are allowed to say what they want

selber

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Re: The future of the eurozone
« Reply #441 on: January 26, 2018, 18:15 »
Are you really thinking you can even try to separate their mixture ?
About the duo, anniversaries are generally just a boring part of the show-politics, nevertheless :
http://de.euronews.com/2018/01/22/paris-berlin-55-jahre-elysee-vertrag
http://fr.euronews.com/2018/01/22/vers-un-nouveau-traite-franco-allemand
About  the proposal linked by F.Zappa, if you want to challenge Google translator, here an Italian economist:
http://politicaeconomiablog.blogspot.it/2018/01/tragico-ma-non-serio-il-surreale.html
I do not need to separate the mix, it is separate. We have a common currency and a common market. Explain why Italy is doing worse than Germany. Where is the problem ?

Conti

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Tribes of Europe
« Reply #442 on: February 01, 2018, 10:35 »
Europe's Political Tribes: Exploring the Diversity of Views Across the EU



Quote
Analysis of more than 10,000 Europeans has identified six distinct groups of voters across the continent – challenging the polarized ‘pro’ and anti-‘EU’ narrative around Europe’s future.

Summary

Chatham House and Kantar Public surveyed over 10,000 Europeans about their views on a range of political and social issues. The data reveal six political ‘tribes’: broad segments of voters with distinct attitudes about the EU. These attitudes, which lie below the surface of the debate about Europe, show a rich cross section of public opinion, and how voters’ preferences are clustered across countries.

The largest tribe consists of what can be termed ‘Hesitant Europeans’. They sit in the middle on many issues, and need persuading on the merits of the EU. They tend to be apathetic about politics, are concerned about immigration and tend to prioritize national sovereignty over deeper EU integration.

‘Contented Europeans’ are optimistic and pro-European. Often young and broadly socially liberal, they feel that they benefit from the EU but tend to favour the status quo over further integration.

‘EU Rejecters’ are angry about politics and the EU. They are least likely to feel any benefits of membership, and overwhelmingly view the EU as undemocratic. Most feel negative about immigration and are socially conservative.

‘Frustrated Pro-Europeans’ want a more integrated EU driven by progressive values. They support the idea of richer states helping poorer ones, but are more mixed about immigration than are other pro-Europeans.

‘Austerity Rebels’ want a looser, more democratic EU driven by solidarity, with powers returned to member states. They tend to think that richer states should support poorer ones, and that each state should accept its fair share of refugees.

‘Federalists’ make up the smallest tribe. They support a deeply integrated ‘United States of Europe’, feel that the EU has benefited them, and are the most positive about immigration. They tend to be wealthier, older and disproportionately male, with strong and diverse social networks.

Where do you fit? Take the test to find out.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2018, 16:37 by Conti »

selber

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Re: The future of the eurozone
« Reply #443 on: February 01, 2018, 12:05 »
@Conti
I think you need a thousand drawers to classify each, maybe more.In what people want it is also important from which reality they go. Everyone has their own truth, and two who want the same are not equal if they have different truths.I personally think that there is too much imposed solidarity within the Eurozone. Solidarity must be voluntary. I also think that solidarity is useless because the problems are systemic. For example, I think the solidarity that funds trade imbalances is not helpful. Solidarity should fight these imbalances. But such solidarity can not be done by states, it's in the hands of big business - it's moving much more money than politics could move.The policy is moving a lot of money to the south.But the owner of the money moving it to the north. We will not be able to change that with the euro. Decisions about your own money do not follow a democratic will.

Lugdu

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Re: The future of the eurozone
« Reply #444 on: February 01, 2018, 16:27 »
@Conti bonjour !
très bonne initiative…
j'hésite entre plusieurs catégories !
je suis sceptique, progressiste, frustrée ; je ne veux pas d'une U.E. fédérale, je n'ai pas de position vis à vis des réfugiés, ni des migrants économiques (je trouve ces vagues de population inéluctables). Je voudrais que l'U.E. homogénéise ses perceptions fiscales, ses lois sociales, ses normes de sécurité et vite. Je voudrais une armée européenne, des projets de développement concertés vers les pays d'immigration, des diplômes et des valeurs démocratiques enseignées, etc…

vous me classez où ??

Conti

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Re: The future of the eurozone
« Reply #445 on: February 01, 2018, 16:52 »
@Conti bonjour !
très bonne initiative…
j'hésite entre plusieurs catégories !
je suis sceptique, progressiste, frustrée ; je ne veux pas d'une U.E. fédérale, je n'ai pas de position vis à vis des réfugiés, ni des migrants économiques (je trouve ces vagues de population inéluctables). Je voudrais que l'U.E. homogénéise ses perceptions fiscales, ses lois sociales, ses normes de sécurité et vite. Je voudrais une armée européenne, des projets de développement concertés vers les pays d'immigration, des diplômes et des valeurs démocratiques enseignées, etc…

vous me classez où ??

Bonjour @Lugdu !

Initialement je vous aurais classée une "européenne hésitante", mais vous ne craignez pas l'immigration massive. Je pense que vous êtes plutôt une "pro-européenne frustrée". Vous êtes ambivalente à l'égard de l'immigration, alors que les hésitants sont préoccupés.  8)

Quote
‘Frustrated Pro-Europeans’ want a more integrated EU driven by progressive values. They support the idea of richer states helping poorer ones, but are more mixed about immigration than are other pro-Europeans.


Lugdu

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Re: The future of the eurozone
« Reply #446 on: February 01, 2018, 17:03 »
C'est presque moi sur le dessin, mais je me tiens droite à cause de mon dos !

"Je ne crains pas l'immigration massive" : si un peu, mais je vis dans une ville où on émigre beaucoup et toujours, on baigne dedans depuis des siècles. Je crois que quand les gens ont un pays porteur, démocratique et développé, ils ne migrent pas ou peu… Nous devons être plus fermes avec les pays concernés. Je crois qu'il faut qu'on adopte des mesures d'accueil qui tiennent compte des craintes de nos concitoyens et de l'avenir des pays d'immigration. Le Canada fait cela très bien en partie. Il faut qu'on travaille sérieusement la question au niveau de l'U.E.

selber

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Re: The future of the eurozone
« Reply #447 on: February 01, 2018, 23:30 »
@Lugdu
I share your assessment with regard to the harmonization of taxes in the EU. Tax competition becomes tax dumping and harms the EU more than it helps the winners.But if something clearly right and important can not be done, shows that national profits are more important to countries than joint profits.It nourishes my doubts about the sincerity of European ideals.As for refugees, immigration is historical and has always existed. But today the immigrants  with Internet and  Sat - TV are very closely connected with the old homeland. They come without leaving their country of origin. That's what makes them out of my sight, to a threat, because their homeland calls our own into question.Especially if they come in large numbers.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2018, 23:37 by selber »

Lugdu

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Re: The future of the eurozone
« Reply #448 on: February 02, 2018, 15:57 »
Quote
Selber : "As for refugees, immigration is historical and has always existed. But today the immigrants  with Internet and  Sat - TV are very closely connected with the old homeland. They come without leaving their country of origin. That's what makes them out of my sight, to a threat, because their homeland calls our own into question.Especially if they come in large numbers."
et en plus, parfois les pays d'origine nous rappellent des passages de notre histoire sociale, politique, économique, que nous voudrions bien ne pas revivre !

Lugdu

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Re: The future of the eurozone
« Reply #449 on: February 02, 2018, 16:02 »
@Lugdu
I share your assessment with regard to the harmonization of taxes in the EU. Tax competition becomes tax dumping and harms the EU more than it helps the winners.But if something clearly right and important can not be done, shows that national profits are more important to countries than joint profits.It nourishes my doubts about the sincerity of European ideals.
tout à fait d'accord.
Nous n'avons pas assez développé et insisté sur l'éducation à l'Europe dans les dernières décennies auprès des jeunes générations pour contrebalancer les clivages et égoïsmes nationaux. Nous avons pris l'U.E. comme un acquis, porté par des générations de l'Après-Guerre. Il y a une carence européenne… Comment la réparer ?