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Author Topic: BREXIT or NOT?  (Read 857 times)

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coffejohn

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BREXIT or NOT?
« on: June 19, 2017, 12:08 »

UK, EU begin Brexit talks




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Lugdu

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2017, 13:55 »
Il manque des escaliers dans le dessin, non ?  ::)

coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2017, 21:19 »
Il manque des escaliers dans le dessin, non ?  ::)


8)
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selber

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2017, 12:01 »
UK, EU begin Brexit talks

Does that mean that both doors are open ? The to the Brexit as well as the to " stay in " ?

coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2017, 15:16 »
Does that mean that both doors are open ? The to the Brexit as well as the to " stay in " ?

Schrödinger’s Brexit


Is the cat alive or dead?




 
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coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2017, 21:33 »

Brexit In Reverse?

By; George Soros

From; https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brexit-in-reverse-by-george-soros-2017-06#comments


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Economic reality is beginning to catch up with the false hopes of many Britons. One year ago, when a slim majority voted for the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union, they believed the promises of the popular press, and of the politicians who backed the Leave campaign, that Brexit would not reduce their living standards.

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But the moment of truth for the UK economy is fast approaching. As the latest figures published by the Bank of England show, wage growth in Britain is not keeping up with inflation, so real incomes have begun to fall.
The British are fast approaching the tipping point that characterizes all unsustainable economic trends. I refer to such a tipping point as “reflexivity” – when both cause and effect shape each other.

Economic reality is reinforced by political reality. The fact is that Brexit is a lose-lose proposition, harmful both to Britain and the EU. The Brexit referendum cannot be undone, but people can change their minds. 

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f May wants to remain in power, she must change her approach to the Brexit negotiations. And there are signs that she is prepared to do so.

By approaching the negotiations that will start on June 19 in a conciliatory spirit, May could reach an understanding with the EU on the agenda and agree to continue as a member of the single market for a period long enough to carry out all the legal work that will be needed. This would be a great relief to the EU, because it would postpone the evil day when Britain’s absence would create an enormous hole in the EU’s budget. That would be a win-win arrangement.

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If May embraces such a platform, she could then carry on leading a minority government, because nobody else would want to take her place. Brexit would still take at least five years to complete, during which time new elections would take place. If all went well, the two parties might want to remarry even before they have divorced.





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Lugdu

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2017, 14:45 »
c'est shakespirien ! ;)

coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2017, 16:41 »

Philip Hammond mocks Boris Johnson over Brexit in front of German audience

From; http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-philip-hammond-brexit-have-our-cake-and-eat-it-joke-mock-german-cdu-economic-council-a7810571.html



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Philip Hammond has mocked the Foreign Secretary’s stance on Brexit in front of an audience of German politicians and businessmen.

Speaking at the annual conference of the CDU economic council – which advises Angela Merkel’s political party – the Chancellor alluded to Boris Johnson’s conduct during the EU referendum.

Mr Johnson, who was not present at the gathering in Berlin, famously said during the EU referendum that Britain could “have our cake and eat it” by leaving the bloc.

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During his speech Mr Hammond quoted a German proverb “Ein Kompromiß, ist die Kunst, einen Kuchen so zu teilen, daß jeder meint, er habe das größte Stück bekommen” – which means “a compromise is the art of dividing a cake in such a way that everyone believes he has the biggest piece”.

He however added: “Wise words, with some applicability to the Brexit negotiations, although I try to discourage talk of ‘cake’ amongst my colleagues.”

Mr Hammond campaigned for Remain during the EU referendum while Mr Johnson supported the Leave campaign.

The Chancellor is one of the few senior remainers in the Cabinet and is thought to be mistrusted by some of the more anti-EU members of the Cabinet.




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coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2017, 20:22 »
Article 127: What is the obscure section of EU law - and how could it stop Brexit?

Some experts say the obscure regulation could keep Britain in the single market

From; http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/article-127-brexit-stop-what-is-it-single-market-eu-eea-theresa-may-article-50-a7955806.html

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As Cabinet divisions over Brexit threaten to tear Theresa May’s Government apart, focus is turning to the obscure legislation that governs how the UK would leave the single market.

Now experts have claimed that Ms May’s plans for a hard Brexit could be scuppered by a little-known legal clause.

The small print at the heart of the debate, Article 127, is the lesser-known cousin of Article 50. Whereas Article 50 spells out how a country leaves the European Union (EU), Article 127 relates to departing the single market.

The former has already been triggered, but the latter has not – and that is where the Prime Minister's problem could lie.

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What is Article 127?

It is a clause of the European Economic Area (EEA) Agreement 1993 – the document that includes the rules governing the single market.

Article 127 explains the process for a country leaving the single market.

It says: “Each Contracting Party may withdraw from this Agreement provided it gives at least twelve months' notice in writing to the other Contracting Parties.

“Immediately after the notification of the intended withdrawal, the other Contracting Parties shall convene a diplomatic conference in order to envisage the necessary modifications to bring to the Agreement.”

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It says: “Each Contracting Party may withdraw from this Agreement provided it gives at least twelve months' notice in writing to the other Contracting Parties.

“Immediately after the notification of the intended withdrawal, the other Contracting Parties shall convene a diplomatic conference in order to envisage the necessary modifications to bring to the Agreement.”

In doing so she began a two-year process that will see Britain leave the EU in March 2019.

However, some legal experts say this is not the same as leaving the EEA (the single market), and that a separate process is needed for this to happen.

Under Article 127, members of the EEA must explicitly say they plan to leave the single market – which is legally separate, many lawyers believe, to leaving the EU.

As things stand, the battle seems set to end up in the courts. If ministers attempt to ignore Article 127 or to trigger it without a parliamentary vote, Remain campaigners are almost certain to re-launch their legal challenge.

Should this happen, Theresa May would face the prospect of her most significant parliamentary defeat yet and, when it comes to determining Britain’s future relationship with Europe, one that could have major ramifications for decades to come.
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coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2017, 00:51 »

May`s Florentine daydream.


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coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2017, 21:55 »
Britain, divided

What if a new border confirmed the UK’s new reality: Leave and Remain voters live in two different countries.

By Rosa Prince   

From; http://www.politico.eu/article/britain-divided-remoaners-hard-brexiteers/



Quote
A country divided; that’s how Britain has felt since last year’s vote to leave the European Union. Remoaners versus Hard Brexiteers, all shades of gray abandoned. But what if Britain was literally, physically divided?

The Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish have spent the months since the referendum grumbling about London’s approach to Brexit. Some even predict the union could be rent asunder as a result, with the Scots leading a domino effect of independence.

But what if the union was redrawn another way? With much of England outside of the capital favoring a break with Europe, perhaps the real post-Brexit fault line runs north and south, with pockets of the east staying with the former, and Wales and the southwest the latter? Imagine a neat separation across the country: Remainers on one side of the border and Leavers on the other.

History has taught us that attempts to redesign the map — from the Balkans to the Middle East — lead to bloodshed and brutality. The sectarian violence that erupted in the wake of British influence also left deep scars. Given Britain’s colonial past, wouldn’t it be fitting retribution if our divided island was forced to come to terms with itself by falling apart?

Of course, in reality, there is no Man from the Colonial Office hovering over a map of the U.K. with a red pen. But what would it be like if there were?

Read full article at; http://www.politico.eu/article/britain-divided-remoaners-hard-brexiteers/

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coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2017, 23:22 »

This is what the Brexit cliff edge looks like

In 11 key policy areas, POLITICO reporters look ahead to March 30, 2019.

From; http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-cliff-edge-no-deal-departure/

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what would actually happen — beyond the likely chaos, acrimony and no doubt to some on both sides of the Channel, proclamations of a great opportunity waiting to be seized — in case the U.K. does leave without a deal?

In 11 key policy areas, POLITICO’s policy reporters throw forward to March 30, 2019 — when the U.K. finds itself outside the EU — and gaze over the Brexit cliff edge.



Read the full gory details at; http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-cliff-edge-no-deal-departure/
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selber

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2017, 14:09 »
This is what the Brexit cliff edge looks like

In 11 key policy areas, POLITICO reporters look ahead to March 30, 2019.

From; http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-cliff-edge-no-deal-departure/



Read the full gory details at; http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-cliff-edge-no-deal-departure/
There is an interesting graphite in the link . A German sold you not more than a Swede , and less than a Dutchman . But who sells more than he buys usually has a big interest in a free trade agreement .

coffejohn

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2017, 20:58 »

Ohne Qualen geht es nicht - ??

From; http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/brexit-verhandlungen-ohne-qualen-geht-es-nicht-15257859.html

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Theresa May seemed anxious to the President of the Commission, despondent and discouraged. A woman who hardly dares anybody but is not ready for an act of liberation. Mays facial expressions and their appearance were volumes. Thus Juncker later described it to his colleagues. Everyone can see this: The Prime Minister is drawn from the struggle with her own party. Under her eyes she wears deep rings. She looks like someone who does not sleep for the night.


Yet from; https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/22/mays-ex-policy-chief-claims-juncker-aide-leaked-brexit-dinner-details

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Juncker rejects claim May begged for help at dinner meeting

Perhaps selber can cast some light on these contradicting reports which are causing confusion in the British press.?

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selber

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Re: BREXIT or NOT?
« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2017, 05:37 »
@coffejohn

I answer late, but I can not say anything illuminating. The Brexit is problematic I knew, but not that it is so worrying. Perhaps the FAZ exaggerates , in principle, I believe the FAZ  rather than Junker, especially since he has no interest to weaken May's position in GB . While the FAZ confined itself somewhat gloating to describe the "torment" Mays, I find the Guardien has better analyzed . Personally I think  , as long as GB needs to meet its long-term commitments, GB should remain a full member of the EU. So that perhaps also some of the money find the way back, and so that is enough time to plan the after . I do not know if that would reassure banks and companies, but then is no reason for panic moves . Maybe that's naive of me .