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Frank Zappa

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Re: Interesting maps of Europe
« Reply #390 on: March 09, 2017, 23:24 »
Maybe this article by Paul De Grauwe can help: Are Germans really poorer than Spaniards, Italians and Greeks?


If the last years havnt taught you that a European transfer union will only bring bad blood, then I dont know. That we cannot even agree how to calculate wealth may be symptomatic. Do you really wanna repeat the failures of the intra-Italian transfer union on a much bigger scale? Have a look what your compatriot Alberto Mingardi says about it: https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/what-europe-can-learn-italy

Quote
Sadly, the prescribed solution — further centralizing fiscal policy — is likely to make the EU’s problems worse.

Advocates of a transfer union have floated various proposals to achieve their goal: eurobonds, stability bonds, a European finance minister, tighter tax rules for member countries and, eventually, permanent fiscal transfers between member countries. A fiscal transfer union, they argue, would both stabilize the eurozone in the short term and create the necessary framework for the convergence of countries’ competitiveness in the long run.

But is further centralization really the answer? The experience in Italy — where similar measures have done nothing to fix the country’s problems — would suggest that it is not.

Since its unification in the nineteenth century, Italy has had a common currency and fiscal transfers from north to south. And yet, the different parts of the country have grown at very different rates.

More than 60 years ago, at the end of World War II, the per capita GDP in the south of Italy was just half of what it was in the North. In response, a newly democratized Italy pledged to address the problem and established the so-called Cassa del Mezzogiorno, a government fund whose purpose was to update the South’s infrastructure and pave the way for economic development.

But the fund soon became a device for channeling public spending into industrial projects in the South for which demand was, to say the least, dubious. Italy ended up funding “cathedrals in the desert” — modern facilities built to make the most of the subsidies that had no reason to exist without them.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2017, 23:37 by The Normal One »
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Conti

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Re: Interesting maps of Europe
« Reply #391 on: March 10, 2017, 09:17 »
If the last years havnt taught you that a European transfer union will only bring bad blood, then I dont know. That we cannot even agree how to calculate wealth may be symptomatic. Do you really wanna repeat the failures of the intra-Italian transfer union on a much bigger scale?
I just replied to the comment you made on a map implying that Italians are richer than Germans and explained why Germany as a nation is not that poor compared to Italy. I didn't advocate a fiscal union between us and as an Italian I'm familiar already with intra-Italian quarrels. That said, I think fiscal transfers within nation states are the norm, not the exception, and the Italian failures are caused by the centralized structure of the Italian state combined with different cultures in the North and South of the country. If Aditec's dream of a Germanic federation becomes true it will inevitably have some internal fiscal transfers, probably with little bitterness because it will be a federal, not a centralized entity. By the way, that's why I imagine Switzerland, not Italy, could be a model for a federal Europe. Anyway, a federal Europe is unrealistic in the foreseeable future. I would leave the euro and opt for a looser relationship to the rest of Europe right now, frankly.

selber

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Re: Interesting maps of Europe
« Reply #392 on: March 10, 2017, 12:46 »
@Conti
Italy is not richer than Germany . Italians are not richer than Germans . At the moment . The problem of the Germans is that the great mass has not enough property . Many people rent their home , the cars are perishable . Property, with lasting value is in the hands of few people . For example, Germany is the country of the Eurozone where fewest people own their dwelling . This makes the dependency on job and income greater . Job loss from a homeowner is bad . Job loss from tenants is worse . But to the other issue - the financial transfer organized by the ECB . Germany is a federal state, and there are financial transfers between the unionstates . This should, of course, also exist in the Eurozone . But that would be cheaper for us than the transfers organized by the ECB . These would also be less harmful . It was the euro, with the treatment of target tariffs by the ECB, which has killed the competitiveness in some countries . Imports at no cost, raised purchasing power. The own economy could not remain profitable with this purchasing power of wages . I rhyme me together something like this . Now the cart is deep in dirt, I have no idea how that should be resolved.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 12:56 by selber »

selber

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Re: Interesting maps of Europe
« Reply #393 on: March 10, 2017, 14:34 »
Imports at no cost, raised purchasing power. The own economy could not remain profitable with this purchasing power of wages . I rhyme me together something like this .
I'm not sure with the theory , it's probably nonsense . Why should FIAT be less competitive because of the target debt ? Nevertheless , I believe that picking olives in Greece is no longer worthwhile , has to do with it . Wages rose so that many private companies were no longer able to generate wages . This of course has to do with debt, even with target debt . Imports were profitable for the state fund . Exports were lost because debt was repaid in this form without it being necessary . I think this was often so calculated .

selber

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Re: Interesting maps of Europe
« Reply #394 on: March 10, 2017, 14:48 »
By the way, that's why I imagine Switzerland, not Italy, could be a model for a federal Europe.
Yes , but the Swiss are united in a rich country . Wealth confirms the model. Whether Europe could confirm it ? Europe would be responsible for any maladministration . This would lead to strife and nationalism .

Frank Zappa

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Re: Interesting maps of Europe
« Reply #395 on: March 10, 2017, 16:49 »
If Aditec's dream of a Germanic federation becomes true it will inevitably have some internal fiscal transfers, probably with little bitterness because it will be a federal, not a centralized entity. By the way, that's why I imagine Switzerland, not Italy, could be a model for a federal Europe. Anyway, a federal Europe is unrealistic in the foreseeable future. I would leave the euro and opt for a looser relationship to the rest of Europe right now, frankly.

You might want that outcome, but I dont have the impression that you also want to go the way to get there. You should always be aware that Swizerland has a much more liberal economic model than Germany. For example Switzerland has strict debt brakes, but doesnt  have any dismissal protection, there is no public health insurance, less vacations and public holidays, less child benefits, no subsidised day nursery and there are basicly no strikes at all. I am sure that following only 50% of this path would be seen by the big majority of Southern Europeans as a German dictate and neoliberal nightmare much worse than the demands of the last 7 years. And by the way the US as another example of a successfull federation is also much more neoliberal than the current EU.

The fiscal transfers inside Germany are not working too good either. The are some states like Berlin, Bremen and Saarland which have adapted themselves on receiving transfers. There is also a lack of incentives for these states to improve their situation since the other states are paying for them anyway.

I am sure that we would return to national currencies after a breakup of the euro. Since the end of WW1 it is even forbidden for Austria by international treaties to unite with Germany and in the meantime I also think they dont want it themselves any more. The Dutch even less and in Southern Europe I dont see such regional federations evolving either. In its core the euro is a Franco-German project and I dont think there will be anything left of it as soon as one of these two pillars pulls out.
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Conti

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Re: Interesting maps of Europe
« Reply #396 on: March 10, 2017, 17:15 »
You might want that outcome, but I dont have the impression that you also want to go the way to get there.
It would definitely require a change of culture in Italy. Generally speaking, I think mentalities do evolve, but it's not something that can be promised or that happens overnight.
If the eurozone survives long enough it might end up achieving that change, but again it's unpredictable. The currency union could break up in chaos before it becomes sustainable and the break up would exacerbate conflicts between creditor and debtor countries.
My current favorite option is Tax Anticipation Notes as national quasi money parallel to the euro. We can discuss it in another thread if you want.

Conti

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Average corporate income tax
« Reply #397 on: March 22, 2017, 11:33 »

Lugdu

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Re: passage sur la Suisse
« Reply #398 on: March 22, 2017, 21:03 »
You might want that outcome, but I dont have the impression that you also want to go the way to get there. You should always be aware that Swizerland has a much more liberal economic model than Germany. For example Switzerland has strict debt brakes, but doesnt  have any dismissal protection, there is no public health insurance, less vacations and public holidays, less child benefits, no subsidised day nursery and there are basicly no strikes at all. I am sure that following only 50% of this path would be seen by the big majority of Southern Europeans as a German dictate and neoliberal nightmare much worse than the demands of the last 7 years. And by the way the US as another example of a successfull federation is also much more neoliberal than the current EU.

intéressante comparaison…
et en plus la Suisse est une des banques de l'Europe !

Conti

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The Euro Solution Matrix
« Reply #399 on: April 07, 2017, 12:03 »
This is not really a map of Europe, but anyway.


coffejohn

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Re: The Euro Solution Matrix
« Reply #400 on: April 07, 2017, 15:15 »
This is not really a map of Europe, but anyway.



On this TMS is plainly the better option with Parallel Currencies a poor second place. A quick look at TMS suggests that it would work in a similar manner to international exchange rate control but within the ECB; the temptation is to liken this to the EuroZone FX Market in a black hole!

It do`s have the advantage of being "invisible to the majority of users" in their ordinary course of business. But what of large business users and currency dealers, how would it work for them and would they be able to arbitrage their deals by carrying out trades in EU states other than their own?

It certainly sounds better than parallel currencies which is just a euphemism for reverting back to the old national currencies.

 
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coffejohn

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Re: Interesting maps of Europe
« Reply #401 on: April 07, 2017, 23:27 »
Quote
On this TMS is plainly the better option with Parallel Currencies a poor second place. A quick look at TMS suggests that it would work in a similar manner to international exchange rate control but within the ECB; the temptation is to liken this to the EuroZone FX Market in a black hole!

I dare say Germany would argue that this is a backdoor way of imposing a fiscal compact as the ECB could use the internal exchange rate adjustment to even out Target 2 imbalances.

It might allow Germany to accept fiscal union by the backdoor rather than being forced through the front door or it they insist on standing firm having the walls of union built around them as they fulminate.
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selber

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Re: Interesting maps of Europe
« Reply #402 on: April 07, 2017, 23:55 »
@coffejohn
I do not think of parallel currency . If two currencies are to have authority , every citizen must have the choice . Everyone would choose the stronger currency . A weak currency is not a choice but a constraint . The DM was strong , but bad for exports . The DM was strong because Germany was richer than others in the Eurozone . We have not won what we have always had .

coffejohn

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Re: Interesting maps of Europe
« Reply #403 on: April 08, 2017, 01:05 »
@coffejohn
I do not think of parallel currency . If two currencies are to have authority , every citizen must have the choice . Everyone would choose the stronger currency . A weak currency is not a choice but a constraint . The DM was strong , but bad for exports . The DM was strong because Germany was richer than others in the Eurozone . We have not won what we have always had .

The TMS idea is of interest as it would mean no change to the "Euro in your pocket", all of the technical changes being carried out within the ECB.

It seems like a hybrid Euro/EU Special Drawing Rights combination; but still a Euro???
Go solar, go slow.

selber

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Re: Interesting maps of Europe
« Reply #404 on: April 09, 2017, 09:30 »
The TMS idea is of interest as it would mean no change to the "Euro in your pocket", all of the technical changes being carried out within the ECB.

It seems like a hybrid Euro/EU Special Drawing Rights combination; but still a Euro???
True, I did not understand that immediately . But deciding is the money with which people pay . With the money , the toxic trade deficits are accumulated . All that would change the ECB would be useless cosmetics .